How would Europe react if faced with the same problem as Israel?
On October 7, 2025, forces of Islamic Jihad enter the Spanish cities of Ceuta and Melilla, situated in the coast of Morocco.
They quickly overwhelm the Spanish Guardia Civil and Policia Nacional and went on a rampage, killing Spanish civilians, even children, and raping numerous women in the most gruesome ways. Other people are kidnapped and taken into hiding places in Morocco to be held as hostages. The military garrisons in both cities are slow to react. They just manage to defend themselves inside their barracks.
The terrorists release video from body cameras that show them smiling while they kill, mutilate and rape. The population of Spain rushes to the streets in outraged demonstrations.
The time and method of the operation are chosen intentionally. They are modeled on the October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel by Hamas, which are by now considered a huge success by Islamic organizations.
Claiming to want to restore order in both cities, the Moroccan army enters them, surrounding the Spanish garrisons. The Spanish government of socialist Pedro Sanchez hesitates. Finally, it demands that the Moroccan military withdraw from Spanish territory. Mohammed VI, king of Morocco, states that his army is there to protect the peace and refuses to move it.
Spain declares war on Morocco and invokes article 5 of NATO.
Donald Trump, newly reelected President of the United States, sides with the king of Morocco, claiming that his army is sufficient to restore order in the invaded cities.
The UK government, remembering how the Spaniards reacted to the Argentinian invasion of the Falkland Islands in 1982, calls it a “colonial war” and refuses to respond.
The EU nations ponder how to act. Eastern European countries are still enmeshed in the war in Ukraine and do not want to open another front.
Finally, France comes to the aid of Spain.
A joint Spanish-French navy confronts the Moroccan navy that is blocking access to the cities. The superior air force of both countries sinks several Moroccan vessels. Other ships flee into Moroccan ports.
Spanish and French soldiers disembark in Ceuta and Melilla. A bloody door-to-door battle ensues. It last several days, with numerous casualties on both sides.
Finally, the Islamic Jihad forces regroup on the Moroccan side of the border. The Moroccan army gives them shelter.
In front of a demonstration of millions of his people, Mohammed VI declares that the war is a holy jihad to reconquer Islamic territories. The European press debates if this includes Spain, which was conquered by Islam in the Middle Ages. The 500-years war of “Reconquista” against the Moors is still in the Spanish DNA. But the colonization of Morocco by Spain and France during the 19th and 20th centuries is even more recent in the memory of the Moroccans.
The war leads to a crisis in the government of Spain, which ends up splitting the coalition between the socialists of PSOE and the leftist Sumar. The latter argues that Spain should seek peace by abandoning Ceuta and Melilla, which it calls “colonies.” Conservative party Partido Popular and the extreme right party Vox want an all-out war with Morocco. PSOE is driven out of power and elections are called. Partido Popular and Vox run on the promise that they will avenge the offenses against Spain by Morocco and the terrorists it supports.
Taking advantage of the turmoil during the Spanish elections, the Moroccan navy invades the island of Lanzarote, the easternmost of the Spanish Canary Islands.
Afraid that the Moroccan would invade the whole Canary archipelago, Germany, Italy and other EU nations finally decide to respond to the invocation of NATO article 5 and join Spain and France in the war against Morocco. Again, several Moroccan ships are sunk by European submarines. The Moroccan navy is forced to withdraw from the Canary Islands, but an important part of their army is left occupying Lanzarote. The Europeans blockade the island.
Partido Popular wins the absolute majority of Congress in the Spanish elections.
With unimpeded control of the government, it launches an all-out assault on Morocco from Ceuta and Melilla. The joint European air forces relentless bombard the cities of Tangier, Tetouan and Nador, which are then invaded by land. Seeking to reduce casualties in the small volunteer European forces, the cities are razed mercilessly. Islamic Jihad and guerrilla Moroccan forces wage deadly urban warfare. For the enraged Spaniards, civilian casualties are an afterthought.
The Moroccan government propaganda inflates their casualties. They soon breach 100,000.
The Islamic world reacts with outrage. In Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Irak, Yemen, Iran and many other countries there are calls for holy jihad against the Christian invaders of Morocco. They start sending arms and soldiers to Morocco. They have to do so by land, because any ships carrying soldiers in the Mediterranean are promptly stopped or sunk by NATO warships. Unfortunately, so are ships carrying humanitarian relief to Morocco from Islamic countries. There is not enough food and medicines in the hospitals to take care of the numerous Moroccan casualties. The United Nations declare a humanitarian crisis.
Putin’s Russia throws its full support behind Morocco. Xi Jiping offers China’s mediation in stopping the war. He advocates giving Ceuta, Melilla and Lanzarote to Morocco. It’s a non-start. Spain and the Europeans do not even bother to come to the negotiating table.
Why would they? They are winning the war. Soon, Morocco will be forced to negotiate, or it will be utterly destroyed.
After several months of blockade, there is famine in Lanzarote. Both Spanish civilians and Moroccan soldiers are dying like flies. Finally, the Moroccan soldiers agree to surrender, on the condition that they are given Spanish citizenship. Mohammed VI has promised to execute them if they return to Morocco. The Spanish government agrees but, when its army enters Lanzarote, they confine the Moroccan soldiers to improvised prisoner camps inside the desert island.
Islamophobia is out of control in Europe, especially in Spain and France. Mosques and Muslim-own business are set afire. There are fights in the suburbs of Paris, Marseille, Barcelona and Madrid. Finally, the Spanish and French governments opt for the massive detention of Muslims, confining them to concentration camps. Germany hesitates at first, then follows suit.
There are demonstrations all over the world against the European carnage in Morocco. In particular, the American Left is adamant in its opposition to the “new colonial war.” It supports Trump’s decision not to get involved.
There is a vote in the United Nations calling for a ceasefire in Morocco. A majority of nations support it, including Russia and China. To the Spaniards' chagrin, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Mexico, Cuba, Ecuador, Bolivia, Brazil and Argentina vote against them. The USA and the UK abstain. The resolution is blocked by France in the Security Council.
Egypt closes the Suez Canal in retaliation. All ships are forced to go around Africa. International commerce suffers, triggering sky-high inflation. Especially in Europe.
The Trump administration starts to have second thoughts about its decision to stay out of the conflict. Pushed by the American economic oligarchy, it finally agrees to respond to NATO’s article 5, but only to re-open the Suez canal.
The EU decides to invade Egypt to take control of the Suez canal. They ask Israel to allow them to use their land as a staging area to enter Egypt.
Israel refuses. It has a long-standing peace treatment with Egypt, it argues.
Besides, when Israel was in a similar predicament the year before, what did Spain and the Europeans do?